What is expectation bias?

• A. Seeing reality as it is
• B. Accepting all data equally
• C. Narrow focus on one element
• D. Seeing/hearing what you expect instead of reality

Answer: (D)

Expectation bias is the tendency to perceive or interpret information in ways that confirm what you expect to happen. In aviation, this means you might hear or see what you expect rather than what is actually there, shaping how you interpret alarms, instrument readings, or weather cues. For example, if you expect a particular system to fail, you may interpret ambiguous data to fit that expectation and overlook conflicting evidence. The phrase “seeing/hearing what you expect instead of reality” captures this bias most accurately. Seeing reality as it is would be neutral perception, accepting all data equally describes objective data handling, and narrowing focus on one element describes tunnel vision, a different phenomenon.